Economic recession dating
The consequences typically include increased unemployment, decreased consumer and business spending, and declining stock prices.Recessions are typically shorter than the periods of economic expansion that they follow, but they can be quite severe even if brief.They will be examining 4 monthly co-incident indicators: Less weight is given by the NBER for items 1 and 4 as they are sectoral measurements for manufacturing and retail as opposed to broad measures of the economy.The NBER also give a lot of attention to the two broadest measures of the economy, Gross Domestic product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI) which are however published quarterly.
The aim here is not “real-time forecasting” of recessions (we use the Recession Forecasting Ensemble for this) but to obtain that we are indeed in recession.
Conversely, stockholders of manufacturing firms will probably see company profits and dividends drop.
Case Study After nearly a year of falling commodity prices, rising unemployment, increasing personal and corporate bankruptcies, falling stock prices, and declining public confidence, the National Bureau of Economic Research made it official and on November 26, 2001, declared a recession.
A temporary downturn in economic activity, usually indicated by two consecutive quarters of a falling GDP.
The official NBER definition of recession (which is used to date U. recessions) is: A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.